Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ENS prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-13 9.189864 10.204045 11.330230 12.682419 14.273764 16.101993 18.383103
2025-04-20 8.424884 9.873936 11.614956 13.897223 16.866544 20.682645 26.104417
2025-04-27 7.686317 9.325558 11.399226 14.285246 18.318957 23.960039 32.857350
2025-05-04 6.851940 8.508817 10.679680 13.830454 18.468860 25.382333 37.229510
2025-05-11 6.459642 8.204710 10.571258 14.153938 19.718773 28.598222 45.298894
2025-05-18 5.991012 7.739418 10.173222 13.979882 20.149752 30.560750 51.772849
2025-05-25 5.603291 7.346002 9.828103 13.824978 20.559548 32.535423 58.923347
2025-06-01 5.299609 7.043319 9.580495 13.780312 21.127385 34.891349 67.783529
2025-06-08 4.965379 6.668722 9.188504 13.450753 21.133786 36.154268 74.618660
2025-06-15 4.742341 6.441653 9.000995 13.434267 21.697431 38.659513 85.821943
2025-06-22 4.428293 6.056569 8.535946 12.894139 21.189218 38.755828 90.336355
2025-06-29 4.126270 5.673230 8.048666 12.271713 20.441885 38.175967 92.606285
2025-07-06 3.873319 5.361405 7.671249 11.838302 20.073992 38.544603 98.763892
2025-07-13 3.936431 5.545314 8.114545 12.934222 23.029260 47.849899 144.806373
2025-07-20 3.855564 5.493203 8.157005 13.284831 24.456578 53.766456 185.311665
2025-07-27 3.653055 5.232393 7.823794 12.874014 24.088238 54.472234 201.138128
2025-08-03 3.580228 5.179263 7.846175 13.166273 25.420649 60.799180 259.662516
2025-08-10 3.443416 5.012409 7.656229 13.009053 25.633865 63.649417 301.734909
2025-08-17 3.319128 4.860247 7.482776 12.869065 25.869842 66.699071 353.409806
2025-08-24 3.217685 4.741610 7.362330 12.828688 26.360058 70.900860 429.428487
2025-08-31 3.087405 4.567922 7.131107 12.530611 26.116751 72.248329 480.914509
2025-09-07 3.003314 4.469837 7.034034 12.515692 26.651406 76.989091 598.583202
2025-09-14 2.862379 4.267850 6.732824 12.026495 25.782840 75.517629 618.739550